Weekly Preview: April 13th - 19th

Opponents: 4 @ Minnesota, 3 vs. Oakland

After a strong start in the opening week of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays play their next four games at the Metrodome in Minnesota before returning home to host Oakland for three at the Rogers Centre. The four game set in Minnesota will be the Jays last ever trip to the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome as the Twins are set to move to their new home, Target Field, for Opening Day 2010.

The Jays swept the Twins in a three game set at the Metrodome last year, from May 13th-15th. Strong perfromances from right-handers Jesse Litsch, Roy Halladay, and Dustin McGowan gave the slumping offence a chance to put away the Twins in three closely decided games. In fact, Toronto relievers earned a save in each of the three wins. B.J. Ryan recorded saves in the first and third games. If it hadn't been for pitching in the last game of the previous Cleveland series (which ended with a double header), Ryan may have been called upon to close out all three games vs. the Tribe. However, Scott Downs was brought on to nail down the save for Roy Halladay in the second game.

Jesse Litsch will again open the series for the Jays as he takes on Twins right-hander Kevin Slowey. He will be followed by rookies Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond, before the final game of the series is a showdown of aces with Roy Halladay scheduled to pitch against Francisco Liriano.

Halladay is 7-0 lifetime in 9 career starts vs. the Twins, with a sparkling 2.92 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At the Metrodome, the numbers aren't as gaudy but the Doc is still 3-0 in 5 starts while posting a 4.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Jesse Litsch has also been dominant against the Twins over his brief career, posting a 3-0 record in 4 career starts with a 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At the Metrodome, Litsch is also slightly more human with a 1-0 record in 2 starts and a 4.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

"Ace" Scott Baker will be making his season debut for the Twins in the third game of the series after opening the season on the disabled list. Baker is a tough matchup for Canadian righty Scott Richmond and Romero gets to face Glen Perkins, coming off a solid start to open the season.

2B Aaron Hill and SS Marco Scutaro were the key table setters throughout the first week of the season but both have struggled in their careers at the Metrodome. Hill is hitting .226/.268/.245 with 2 RBI in 53 AB, while Scutaro has posted a .235/.235/.255 line with zero walks and just 4 runs over 51 AB. Coming into the series red-hot, hopefully Toronto's double play tandem will post better numbers at the top of the lineup throughout this series.

Expect the Jays to at least split this four game set in Minnesota with their best chances for wins coming in the first and fourth games. However, with the way their offence has been purring, the Jays could have the chance to win each game in this series. It will be interesting to see what young left-hander Ricky Romero can do for an encore after his strong 6 inning season debut against the Tigers.

Back at home for a three game set against the Oakland A's, it will likely be David Purcey, Litsch and Romero starting the three game set. Oakland's rotation is full of unproven youngsters, led by Dana Eveland's 36 career starts. With the Jays set to counter with their three youngest starters, it will be an interesting showdown of young talent between the teams. The A's visited Toronto twice last season, but faced two much different Toronto ballclubs. Their first road trip of the season was in Toronto from April 8th-10th and they swept a three-game set from the Jays. The Jays were struggling early on in the year, and after John Gibbons was fired as Manager in June and replaced by Cito Gaston the Jays were a much improved team the second half of the season. The A's returned to Toronto from August 4th-7th and were promptly swept in that four-game series.

Because the A's rotation is so inexperienced, there isn't much statistical data we can use to predict how the Jays offence will fare. It's likely that the A's will use Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden and Dana Eveland in the series in Toronto as they have an off day before coming to town, likely prompting them to skip 5th starter Josh Outman's next turn in the rotation.

Cahill is coming off a very strong second start to the season (and second of his career), where he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in. Unfortunately Cahill, one of baseball's top pitching prospects, was the tough luck loser as he was outduelled by Seattle's Erik Bedard in a 1-0 final.

The Jays fared well against another young pitching prospect in Detroit's Rick Porcello during opening series in Toronto. It takes hitters time to adjust to a pitcher they haven't faced before, so if Cahill has his control early, don't be surprised to see Toronto's lineup struggle the first time through. Cahill has thrown 103 and 97 pitches, respectively in his two starts thus far, showing that he has the ability to work deep into games. Control might be his issue, as he issued 8 walks over his first two starts. If the Jays hitters can remain patient and make Cahill work, they'll get a look at his variety of pitches and should be able to do some damage the second and third times through the lineup.

Of the three projected starters for the series, only Dana Eveland pitched at the Rogers Centre last year. He has two career starts versus the Jays, a gem early in the season on April 10th and he silenced the struggling Jays over six-plus innings, surrendering just three hits and three walks, while striking out six Jays. Seeing Eveland later in the year in Oakland, the Jays put the beat on the young pitcher as he allowed 11 hits and 7 ER over 4.1 IP in an eventual 12-0 Toronto victory. Rod Barajas played a big role in that victory, and combined to hit 3-for-4 with two doubles and an RBI against Eveland last season.

When facing Twins left-hander Francisco Liriano or either of the A's two lefties in Braden and Eveland, don't be surprised to see Lyle Overbay and/or Travis Snider sit while some of the right-handed reserves get starts. As Braden and Eveland pitch back-to-back, it would be surprising to see Cito Gaston bench Snider for two straight games again. Expect him start against one of the two, likely Braden in the second game of the series. Again, the Jays have the ability to win each of these three matchups and anything less than a series victory has to be considered a disappointment. Look for the Jays to be puzzled by Cahill and Braden early in the games, but expect the offence to improve the second time through the order.

Prediction for the week: Roy Halladay improves to 3-0 with a win over Francisco Liriano and the Twins and the Jays finish with at least 4 wins in 7 games. That might not sound impressive, but it would be enough to win a playoff series wouldn't it??

Week in Review: April 6th - 12th

Weekly Record: 5-2

Overall Season Record: 5-2

Opponents: 4 vs. Tigers, 3 @ Indians

It's been an outstanding week for the Toronto Blue Jays, even after a sluggish finish to the final game of the week, an 8-4 loss to the previously winless Cleveland Indians.

The Jays received solid debut starts from Roy Halladay, David Purcey and Ricky Romero while both Jesse Litsch and Scott Richmond pitched well enough to give the offence a shot. Had it not been for a hot-hitting Miguel Cabrera and a franchise record rain delay in Cleveland, Litsch and Richmond's starts may have gone just as well.

Regardless, with series wins over Detroit (3-of-4), and Cleveland (2-of-3), the Jays are off to a torrid start and currently find themselves in sole possession of 1st place in the American League East.

Although the starting pitchers fared well their first time through, the true story this week was the productivity of their offence. While the Jays' two best hitters (Alex Rios and Vernon Wells) got off to a mediocre start, it's been the rest of the lineup pulling their weight and then some.

Marco Scutaro, Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Scott Rolen and Kevin Millar all finished the first week of play batting over .300. Hill and Lind have been the two biggest contributors, combining for 5 HR and 20 RBI over the first 5 games. Scutaro has kept backup SS John McDonald nearly glued to the bench with his hot start, picking up 10 runs, 10 hits and 6 walks from the leadoff spot.

Star of the Week

DH Adam Lind (12-30), 3 HR, 12 RBI.

Lind stole the show in leading the Blue Jays to a win on Opening Night with a team record 6 RBI. He also had back-to-back 3 hit nights adding a home run in each game as well. Lind's hot bat kept him in the lineup against back-to-back left-handers to start the series in Cleveland. While fellow lefties Lyle Overbay and Travis Snider were replaced for two games with righties Kevin Millar and Jose Bautista to face Cleveland lefties Scott Lewis and Cliff Lee, Lind remained in the 5th spot in the lineup and continued to produce. At this point, Lind is the best bet of all Toronto's left-handed bats to see regular playing time against southpaw starters. If he continues to produce, don't be surprised to see Cito Gaston bump Lind ahead of Vernon Wells and into the cleanup spot against RHP.

Opening Day: Almost Perfect!

The Jays put the boots to the Tigers last night, and with the exception of some drunk fans and a 7th inning where the wheels fell off for Roy Halladay, the Jays' couldn't have hoped for a better start to their '09 season. The Doc appeared fatigued as he struggled to finish the 7th inning. It makes you wonder why Cito wouldn't just go to the bullpen with a 9-1 lead and his ace struggling on the hill, but instead Roy took another 4 ER, which squashed his quality start.

He finished with the following line:

7.0 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K and 2 Gopher balls (served up to Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge)

The real story on this night however, amidst the wild and apparently drunk jays fans, was the play of the Jays two young hitting prospects Adam Lind and Travis Snider.

Lind got the party started in the first inning with a clutch, 2-out 2-run single to right after Vernon Wells had doubled. Scott Rolen was then plunked and chased around the bases with Lind on Lyle Overbay's double to the left-centre field gap. 4-0 Jays!

Snider led off the bottom of the second with a double, only to be stranded on second base. After Granderson's solo homer in the top of the 4th, Snider responded with a solo shot of his own to get the ball rolling again in the 4th. Later in the inning, Lind cashed Rios and Wells yet again, this time with a 3-run bomb (again with 2 outs).

Lind provided Jays' fans with a nice glimpse of their team's potential this year. The knock on the '07 and '08 Jays was their lack of clutch hitting and their impotent batting average with runners in scoring position. Lind provided just that on Opening Day, finishing 4-5 with 6 RBI!!

Now, David Purcey.. what can we do for an encore??

5th Starter.. Richmond or Mills?

Rich what?? Richmond!!

He wouldn't have been my choice, but I'd rather throw the 29 year old Canadian to the dogs and send 24 year old prospect Brad Mills down to Las Vegas to gamble the season away. Hopefully Richmond will be able to provide Toronto with several steady yet unspectacular starts every 5th day. He's never going to win many games by himself, but hopefully he can keep his team in it and give the Jays offence a chance to do some damage.

Now the question is...

Once Richmond (or Romero or god forbid even Purcey) gets rocked and sent back down to the Minors, who gets the 1st call for a spot start?

Matt Clement? If its early in the season, he might just be the guy as it appears that Cito doesn't want to throw Brett Cecil or Brad Mills right into the fire before they are truly ready.

Brett Cecil? He is probably the most talented of the Jays pitching prospects, but may also be the furthest from being ready. After being selected in '07 as a former closer, Cecil isn't yet stretched out enough to handle the grind of a full major leauge season. He set a career high of 118.2 IP in '08 while splitting time between all three levels, and should be limited to somewhere around 150 IP this year. Monitor his innings in the minors, but expect to see Cecil up with the big club at some point down the stretch, leaving him poised to battle for a spot in what should be a very interesting 2010 Jays rotation.

Brad Mills? Although Mills was the final cut from the Jays starting rotation race, I wouldn't expect him to get the first call for a spot start due to injury or a struggling rotation member. Expect Mills to emerge when Gaston and Co. feel he is ready to grab a permanent rotation spot. After throwing more than half of his innings last year in Low-A ball with the Lansing Lugnuts, Mills is due for healthy number of starts in the minors at whatever level he starts before he is deemed ready for the majors. I expect him to join Clement and Cecil in an interesting AAA-Las Vegas 51's rotation this season. His ETA? I'd say perhaps mid-July, but don't be surprised if he is shut down before the season's end after totalling just 147.1 IP last season.

News Flash: Romero may not be a bust after all!!

According to MLB.com, former first round pick Ricky Romero has claimed one of the two vacant spots in the Blue Jays starting rotation to open the season.

Jays Manager Cito Gaston was quoted as saying that Romero has "pitched himself on the team." After a strong spring start in which Romero limited the Astros to two runs over seven solid innings of work, Romero appears to have leap frogged both Canadian right-hander Scott Richmond, and lefty Brad Mills on the Jays depth chart to open the season.

About a week or so ago, it was learned that Brett Cecil would be returned to minor league camp to prepare for the start of his third pro season, and that Matt Clement, this years annual reclamation project, wouldn't be ready to pitch at the Major League level to open the season. That left Romero, Mills and Richmond battling for the final two spots behind Doc, Listch and Purcey in the Jays rotation. Gaston has been raving about Mills all spring long. "This kid has got some talent, and he seems to be able to handle the ups and downs and the pressure."

With recent news that injured starter Dustin McGowan may not pitch at all in '09 after a setback in his rehab, perhaps the Jays are more inclined to overlook Richmond, the 29 year old rookie and "ace" of Team Canada's staff at the World Baseball Classic, in favour of exposing their top young pitchers to every day life in the big leagues.

If Marcum and McGowan could make complete combacks to be healthy and ready to go for the '09 season, the Jays could potentially be loaded with pitching options, and may actually be best off dealing from a position of strength. The question is, of all these arms, which are the best and who do the Jays foresee sliding in behind Halladay, Marcum and McGowan in 2010. Litsch appears to be a lock as long as he doesn't take any steps back in '09. That leaves David Purcey, Romero, Cecil, Mills, and LHP prospect Marc Rzepczynski to battle for the fifth spot in what could be a filthy Jays rotation.

Don't forget the Jays posted the best staff ERA in baseball in 2008, so 2009 may not be quite the down year people were expecting.

As for Romero, hopefully he will make the best of this opportunity and run away from the critics who pretty much wrote him off as a first round bust. In my own article on January 31st, regarding Baseball America's list of Top 10 Jays prospects, I wrote that Romero "got a bit of a gift even being named to this list. (He can thank his outstanding collegiate career and his #6 overall pick in the 2005 draft... Troy Tulowitzki would have been nice huh?)" Romero was the first pitcher taken off the board in what was a stocked first round in 2005. Sandwiched between Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki, critics of J.P. Ricciardi the last few years had a tough time living with the knowledge that Tulo could have filled the Jays revolving door at SS, but instead were stuck with Romero.

For the sake of J.P.'s job, I hope Romero proves all the haters wrong. After all, he was billed with similar hype to current Rays phenom David Price. OK, that may be a bit of a stretch, but I've been proved wrong thus far.

Jays just aren't Rich enough to get over the Hill

Ok, the Jays had no money to spend this past offseason. We get it, but when even the lowly Orioles are both spending and making savvy offseason moves, I've just about had enough. Unless Travis Snider is an immediate second coming of Shawn Green, and left-handers Brett Cecil and Brad Mills come to town and win a combined 32-35 games, the Jays will be spectators come October, failing yet again to get over the Hill.

Lame duck GM, J.P. Ricciardi's biggest offseason acquisitions aren't even worth nothing. Instead I'll go straight to a specific Orioles acquistion, a guy who would've looked great in our nest instead: SP Rich Hill.

When I heard that the Orioles acquisition of Hill from the Chicago Cubs was imminent back in late January, I instantly screamed out "J.P, what the hell is wrong with you? Why don't the Jays go after him?". Coming off his first serious stint in the majors in 2006 where he posted a solid 4.17 ERA and K'd 90 batters in just under 100 IP, Hill was one of the most talked about young pitchers coming into the 2007 season. Accordingly he was taken 7th overall in the 2007 Tha Green Monster Dynasty Entry Draft. Hill status rose even greater to the point where, according to Rotoworld.com he was "almost untouchable a year ago". After a breakout 2007 season where he posted a 3.92 ERA over 32 starts, with a 11-8 record and 183 K's in 195 IP, Hill was on the verge of joining the ranks of the elite young starters in baseball and received a lot of draft day.

Unfortunately for owners who invested in Hill in 2008, their R.O.I. was terrible. Hill made just 5 early starts for the Cubbies before spending the rest of the season riding buses in the minors. Out of options after the 2008 season, the Cubs decided to part ways with the "former" promising youngster. According to ESPN.com, Hill made a cool $445,000 last year and I can't envision him getting any significant raise after such a disappointing season. At such an affordable cost, what better gamble could there be for a G.M. to take?

Just 29 on Opening Day, Hill should have an easy time securing a starting spot for the Orioles and playing in the AL East, Blue Jays fans will be sure to get a good look at a guy who could have replaced A.J. Burnett in a heartbeat and kept this year's squad in contention.

Thanks again J.P.

J.P. To The Rescue!!! (Baseball America Top 10 Jays Prospects)

This article was published by Baseball America back on November 14, 2008 but I think its an interesting read for all Jays' fans. It provides an in-depth look at the future of our team.

According to BA's Matt Eddy, here are our top 10 prospects:

1. Travis Snider, of
2. J.P. Arencibia, c
3. Brett Cecil, lhp
4. Justin Jackson, ss
5. David Cooper, 1b
6. Kevin Ahrens, 3b
7. Brad Mills, lhp
8. Ricky Romero, lhp
9. Marc Rzepczynski, lhp
10. Brad Emaus, 2b/3b

Now the last 2 guys, I have never heard of and I think Ricky Romero got a bit of a gift even being named to this list. (He can thank his outstanding collegiate career and his #6 overall pick in the 2005 draft... Troy Tulowitzki would have been nice huh?)

Snider is a given, but a guy that truly excites me is J.P. Arencibia. After enduring countless years of Gregg Zaun's mediocre contributions, the thought of developing a solid young catcher should drive all Jays fans nuts!! Here's the book on Arencibia courtesy of http://www.scoutingbook.com/:

"A big, strong right-handed hitter from Florida, Arencibia is a catcher of the offensive variety, though he does have a strong throwing arm to go along with his bat. He's also got a great personality for leadership and should be able to handle a pitching staff if he can stay behind the plate. While at-bat, he's a dead pull slugger with plus power. He just needs to learn a little plate discipline to stop big-league pitchers from picking him apart before he can get his bat into play."



Arencibia was also recently invited to MLB's Rookie Career Development Program. Check out this video for Arencibia's thoughts on the experience.

Maybe this J.P. is the saviour the Blue Jays have been waiting for!! We look forward to seeing him behind the plate at Rogers Centre in the not too distant future.

Offseason Hot Stove

HA!

The only thing on the Blue Jays Offseason Stove is a week old half eaten can of baked beans. What's that putrid smell you ask? No, it's not the remnants of the beans wreaking havoc with your bowels, its the foul stench of losing your #2 starter, and saviour, A.J. Burnett to everyone's favourite nemesis, the NEW YORK YANKEES!

Well thank god Allan James was New York's prize addition this offseason. Phew!! Wait... what's that? Sabathia too?? FOR HOW MUCH?! Son of a b*#@^!! Well at least they weren't able to improve their offence. Ok, enough with the drama. We all know the Yankees wheeled to acquire Nick Swisher from the Chisox and blew both the Angels and the Red Sox away by signing 1B Mark Teixeira to a ludicrous contract extension, to fill the emotional and physical void left by Jason Giambi (another Yankees signing that drove baseball fans absolutely nuts). Am I the only one who finds it slightly ironic that it was Oakland of all teams who landed Giambi after the Yankees showed him the door?

Anyway, back to the Jays.. the hell with the Yankees. What have my prized blue birds accomplished this offseason? To be honest the only thing of any importance was the tragic passing of team owner Ted Rogers on December 2nd. As a Ryerson graduate of the Ted Rogers School of Management, I have deep respect for the man for his contributions in the community and to the Toronto Blue Jays. He will be sorely missed. Does anyone besides me think that Ted would have allowed J.P. to reallocate the money saved on Burnett to lure in the best possible free agent acquisition the Jays could have made? How does a leadoff hitter sound. Oh wait, what about a shortstop who actually knows how to hit? Or how about an excellent base stealer? OR, how about we solve all three of those problems with one name?

Rafael Furcal.

'Nuff said.

Sorry Michael Barrett. No disrespect Matt Clement. Mike Maroth? Raul Chavez? Who?? Are any of you gonna help this team in any way??