2009 WAS an interesting season to say the least, as the Blue Jays "TRIED" to compete in the dangerous AL East.
Now in the offseason, the clock is ticking on the 2010 season.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Weekly Preview: April 13th - 19th

Opponents: 4 @ Minnesota, 3 vs. Oakland



After a strong start in the opening week of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays play their next four games at the Metrodome in Minnesota before returning home to host Oakland for three at the Rogers Centre. The four game set in Minnesota will be the Jays last ever trip to the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome as the Twins are set to move to their new home, Target Field, for Opening Day 2010.

The Jays swept the Twins in a three game set at the Metrodome last year, from May 13th-15th. Strong perfromances from right-handers Jesse Litsch, Roy Halladay, and Dustin McGowan gave the slumping offence a chance to put away the Twins in three closely decided games. In fact, Toronto relievers earned a save in each of the three wins. B.J. Ryan recorded saves in the first and third games. If it hadn't been for pitching in the last game of the previous Cleveland series (which ended with a double header), Ryan may have been called upon to close out all three games vs. the Tribe. However, Scott Downs was brought on to nail down the save for Roy Halladay in the second game.

Jesse Litsch will again open the series for the Jays as he takes on Twins right-hander Kevin Slowey. He will be followed by rookies Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond, before the final game of the series is a showdown of aces with Roy Halladay scheduled to pitch against Francisco Liriano.

Halladay is 7-0 lifetime in 9 career starts vs. the Twins, with a sparkling 2.92 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At the Metrodome, the numbers aren't as gaudy but the Doc is still 3-0 in 5 starts while posting a 4.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Jesse Litsch has also been dominant against the Twins over his brief career, posting a 3-0 record in 4 career starts with a 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At the Metrodome, Litsch is also slightly more human with a 1-0 record in 2 starts and a 4.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

"Ace" Scott Baker will be making his season debut for the Twins in the third game of the series after opening the season on the disabled list. Baker is a tough matchup for Canadian righty Scott Richmond and Romero gets to face Glen Perkins, coming off a solid start to open the season.

2B Aaron Hill and SS Marco Scutaro were the key table setters throughout the first week of the season but both have struggled in their careers at the Metrodome. Hill is hitting .226/.268/.245 with 2 RBI in 53 AB, while Scutaro has posted a .235/.235/.255 line with zero walks and just 4 runs over 51 AB. Coming into the series red-hot, hopefully Toronto's double play tandem will post better numbers at the top of the lineup throughout this series.

Expect the Jays to at least split this four game set in Minnesota with their best chances for wins coming in the first and fourth games. However, with the way their offence has been purring, the Jays could have the chance to win each game in this series. It will be interesting to see what young left-hander Ricky Romero can do for an encore after his strong 6 inning season debut against the Tigers.

Back at home for a three game set against the Oakland A's, it will likely be David Purcey, Litsch and Romero starting the three game set. Oakland's rotation is full of unproven youngsters, led by Dana Eveland's 36 career starts. With the Jays set to counter with their three youngest starters, it will be an interesting showdown of young talent between the teams. The A's visited Toronto twice last season, but faced two much different Toronto ballclubs. Their first road trip of the season was in Toronto from April 8th-10th and they swept a three-game set from the Jays. The Jays were struggling early on in the year, and after John Gibbons was fired as Manager in June and replaced by Cito Gaston the Jays were a much improved team the second half of the season. The A's returned to Toronto from August 4th-7th and were promptly swept in that four-game series.

Because the A's rotation is so inexperienced, there isn't much statistical data we can use to predict how the Jays offence will fare. It's likely that the A's will use Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden and Dana Eveland in the series in Toronto as they have an off day before coming to town, likely prompting them to skip 5th starter Josh Outman's next turn in the rotation.

Cahill is coming off a very strong second start to the season (and second of his career), where he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in. Unfortunately Cahill, one of baseball's top pitching prospects, was the tough luck loser as he was outduelled by Seattle's Erik Bedard in a 1-0 final.

The Jays fared well against another young pitching prospect in Detroit's Rick Porcello during opening series in Toronto. It takes hitters time to adjust to a pitcher they haven't faced before, so if Cahill has his control early, don't be surprised to see Toronto's lineup struggle the first time through. Cahill has thrown 103 and 97 pitches, respectively in his two starts thus far, showing that he has the ability to work deep into games. Control might be his issue, as he issued 8 walks over his first two starts. If the Jays hitters can remain patient and make Cahill work, they'll get a look at his variety of pitches and should be able to do some damage the second and third times through the lineup.

Of the three projected starters for the series, only Dana Eveland pitched at the Rogers Centre last year. He has two career starts versus the Jays, a gem early in the season on April 10th and he silenced the struggling Jays over six-plus innings, surrendering just three hits and three walks, while striking out six Jays. Seeing Eveland later in the year in Oakland, the Jays put the beat on the young pitcher as he allowed 11 hits and 7 ER over 4.1 IP in an eventual 12-0 Toronto victory. Rod Barajas played a big role in that victory, and combined to hit 3-for-4 with two doubles and an RBI against Eveland last season.

When facing Twins left-hander Francisco Liriano or either of the A's two lefties in Braden and Eveland, don't be surprised to see Lyle Overbay and/or Travis Snider sit while some of the right-handed reserves get starts. As Braden and Eveland pitch back-to-back, it would be surprising to see Cito Gaston bench Snider for two straight games again. Expect him start against one of the two, likely Braden in the second game of the series. Again, the Jays have the ability to win each of these three matchups and anything less than a series victory has to be considered a disappointment. Look for the Jays to be puzzled by Cahill and Braden early in the games, but expect the offence to improve the second time through the order.

Prediction for the week: Roy Halladay improves to 3-0 with a win over Francisco Liriano and the Twins and the Jays finish with at least 4 wins in 7 games. That might not sound impressive, but it would be enough to win a playoff series wouldn't it??

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